The Real Problem with Erdogan

Last night saw a coup attempt in Turkey. Seeking to overthrow the government of President Recip Erdogan, a military faction positioned tanks around the Istanbul airport, closed bridges, buzzed Ankara in airplanes, and attempted to take over TV stations. It was quickly quashed. As of now, nearly 3,000 soldiers are under arrest following fighting that killed some 200 people. Prime Minister Yildirim says the situation is “completely under control.” President Erdogan promises that the insurgents “will pay a heavy price.”

Not a lot is known yet about the insurgents. Conventional wisdom has it that their cause is one of secularism against Islamism. An analysis by the BBC's Middle East Editor, Jeremy Bowen, is typical. In a sidebar titled "Why did coup happen?," Mr. Bowen writes that Erdogan “is a political Islamist who has rejected modern Turkey's secular heritage.” It’s a heritage that Turkey—and the Turkish military—take extremely seriously, dating back to the 1920s and Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic.

It’s true that Erdogan has Islamist roots. He came up through the ranks in the Welfare Party, which was banned by Turkey’s Constitutional Court in 1998 for its opposition to the nation’s secular charter. The following year, Erdogan was jailed for reciting an Islamist poem.

In spite of his early history, Erdogan has not been that much of an Islamist since he's been in power. The controversies that have characterized his eleven years as prime minister and two years as president have little to do with religion.

No, the real problem with Erdogan is not Islamism, but rather, in the words of Mr. Bowen, “Mr. Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian and is trying to turn himself into a strong executive president.”

Examples abound of attacks on freedom of the press and separation of powers:

According to one report, over 1,800 journalists have lost their jobs under the AKP government.

In 2014, Twitter and YouTube were blocked in Turkey for two months.

This year, thirty “Academics for Peace,” who had signed a petition critical of military operations against the Kurds, were briefly jailed.

Traditionally, the President of Turkey is a figurehead, expected to be neutral in political matters. However, Erdogan has been actively involved in Parliamentary elections.

Most serious of all, there have been purges of the judiciary and subsequent packing of the bench with AKP supporters. The failure of the coup has given Erdogan an excuse to crack down on the independence of the judiciary even further. The BBC reports that 2,800 judges were fired today in the wake of the coup attempt.

I would be remiss if I didn't address some counter-examples, so here goes: Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (known by its Turkish initials AKP) has twice been dragged in front of the Constitutional Court in attempts to shut it down for infringing on the separation of mosque and state. But both attempts failed. It's also been alleged that Erdogan provided support to Islamic State; that charge hasn't stuck either. In fact, one of his accusers, US Vice President Joe Biden, ended up having to apologize. If any support did occur, it was probably more about opposing Assad than supporting Islamism. And although there have been restrictions placed on the sale and advertising of alcohol, they aren't that different from what exists in the United States.

All-in-all, Erdogan more closely resembles a strongman in the mold of Vladimir Putin than an Islamist like Muhammad Morsi. Some of my anti-Islamist friends will no doubt say that he’s playing his cards close to his chest, and he plans to implement a theocracy just as soon as he has consolidated enough power to get away with it. They might be right. But Erdogan’s not really a close-to-his-chest type. He’s more a shoot-from-the-hip, Donald Trump type, with a history of outrageous statements comparing Israelis to Nazis or telling female journalists, “know your place.”

In any case, regardless of whether there's a master plan for theocracy, I hope, for the sake of the Turkish people, that Mr. Erdogan never becomes powerful enough to implement one. Unfortunately, the failure of last night's coup will make the continuing concentration of power in Mr. Erdogan's hands that much harder to prevent.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern. For his take on the roots of Islamism, see his talk The Islamic in Islamic State on YouTube.