President Art-of-the-Deal gets suckered

Syria ceasefire primarily benefits Putin and Assad

In the wake of President Trump’s first meeting with Russian president Putin on Friday, the two nations announced, with great fanfare, that they, along with Jordan, had reached a ceasefire agreement for a portion of Syria. The ceasefire began today and, and as of the time I’m writing this, it’s holding. It covers areas in the southern part of the country, in the provinces of Daraa, Quneytra, and as-Suwaida.

In a press conference following the meeting, Secretary of State Tillerson praised the agreement, saying, “I think this is our first indication of the US and Russia being able to work together in Syria.” He went on to say “our objectives are exactly the same. How we get there, we each have a view.”

In my humble opinion, the claim that the United States and Russia have the same objectives in Syria, and the only difference is how we get there, is ludicrous. The US seeks to overthrow the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, something Tillerson confirmed in his press conference. Russia is propping Assad up. That's literally the opposite objective. And the ceasefire is going to help them achieve it. Indeed, it's merely a continuation of a ceasefire that Syria announced unilaterally earlier in the week, amid rebel skepticism. I don't think anyone would accuse me of being unfair if I said that if the Syrian government announces a ceasefire unilaterally, you can bet it's in the Syrian government's interest to have a ceasefire. Only now the US is committed to it, which puts pressure on the US-backed rebels to abide by it as well.

I’m not alone in my opinion that, if the US objective is to unseat Assad, then the ceasefire is a sucker’s deal for the United States and its allies. In an interview with Fox News on Friday, former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton said, “I’m not at all sure that this ceasefire, assuming it holds, and that’s a big assumption, doesn’t mostly benefit the Assad regime. In other words it gives them some calm on this particular front to enable them to move forward on another front.”

Indeed, a glance at the map shows the logic of Ambassador Bolton's concern. With a ceasefire in the south, government troops can move north to concentrate on recapturing other rebel-held territories, say near Damascus, or in Idlib province. The rebels in the southern provinces, meanwhile, are stuck there. To assist other rebel factions in the north, they would have to cross government-held territory, which they can't do.

Ambassador Bolton expressed broader concerns as well. “This deal goes a long way toward politically acquiescing and legitimizing in that Russian presence, and I think that’s a mistake...What bothers me about it more than anything else, it sounds exactly like the Obama administration’s position.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel seems dubious also. This morning he told his cabinet, “Israel would welcome a true ceasefire in Syria.” I admit I'm reading between the lines, but it sounds like he doesn't consider this ceasefire to be "true."

President Trump got elected by bragging about his skill at negotiation. If his deal with Russia on the Syria ceasefire is any indication, he may have overstated his abilities.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embrace science and tolerance, and those who would rather throw in their lot with mysticism and persecution.

Photo credit: Ha’aretz
Map credit: SyrianCivilWarMap.com