Islam: the Good, the Bad, and the Everyday: Assad

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Sunday, March 25, 2018

Mideast Week in Review

by Michael Isenberg.

Syria war end game.

Israel sentences slap video teen to eight months in prison.

The war in Syria dominated the news from the Middle East this week. Government forces continued to make gains in the Eastern Ghouta region. 70% of the district, on the outskirts of Damascus, has now fallen into the hands of the Assad regime. The area had been under rebel control since 2013.

The operation by the Assad regime and its Russian ally has been brutal. The BBC reports more than 1,400 civilians have been killed. Among these, fifteen children and two women died in an underground school that was struck by Russian missiles.

With the capture of Eastern Ghouta, the Syria War is in its end game and, sadly, it's an Assad victory. Not that the other options were great. But at least the destruction will stop soon.

Separately, in the north of the country, Free Syrian Army forces, backed by Turkey, have taken control the Kurdish town of Afrin. The Turkish government claims that the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which controlled the area, is part of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a rebel group within Turkey which the government considers a terrorist organization. The US disputes the claim that the groups are in cahoots. Turkish president Recep Erdogan intends to create a buffer zone in northern Syria along the Turkish border. “The military operation will go on until the terror corridor through Manbij, Ain al-Arab, Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ain, Qamishli has been wiped out,” he said.

The Trump Administration has done little to protect the Kurds from Turkish aggression. Given that the Kurds allied with the United States in the battle against ISIS, and fought in the front lines, it is shameful that we are not doing more to help them. That may change, however, as American troops are stationed in some of the towns threatened by Erdogan.

There were reports of looting by the rebel forces. According to the BBC, “AFP news agency journalists in Afrin also saw rebels break into shops, restaurants, and houses, and leave with food, electronic equipment, blankets and other goods.” And we thought the Free Syrian Army were the good guys.

Also related to Syria, the Israeli government this week declassified video and other documents concerning its bombing of a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007. This is the first public admission by the Jewish state that it was behind the destruction of the facility. Pundits believe the timing of the release is intended as a warning to Iran that Israel will respond similarly to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Indeed a tweet from Prime Minister Netanyahu, that “Israel's policy was and remains consistent - to prevent our enemies from arming themselves with nuclear weapons,” seems to confirm that interpretation.

Syria war: Air strike 'kills children in Eastern Ghouta school’

Syria war: Turkish-led forces oust Kurdish fighters from heart of Afrin (BBC)

Syria war: Afrin looted by Turkish-backed rebels (BBC)

Israel admits striking suspected Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 (BBC)

In a plea deal, an Israeli military court sentenced 17-year old Ahed Tamimi to eight months in prison. You may recall Ms. Tamimi as the Palestinian teen who was pictured in a viral video slapping an Israel soldier.

In my humble opinion, Israel made a mistake in prosecuting Tamimi. The video was a propaganda victory for the Jewish state, showing Israeli restraint in the face of Palestinian provocation. By imprisoning Tamimi, Israel is turning victory into defeat by creating a martyr for the Palestinian cause.

Michael Isenberg drinks bourbon and writes novels. His latest book, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092, and tells the story of the conflict between science and shari’ah in medieval Islam. Check it out on Amazon.com.

Photo credits: IHS Conflict Monitor, Twitter

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Mideast Week in Review

by Michael Isenberg.

Kurdish independence.
Syria de-escalation.

Anti-woman Tunisian marriage law abolished.

Kurdish Independence: The Iraqi Kurdish Parliament voted this week to proceed with a September 25 referendum on independence from Iraq. The move is opposed by the Iraqi government of course, as well as the governments of Iran and Turkey, which seek to discourage Kurdish separatism in their own countries. The United States also opposes it, on the grounds that it will bring instability to Iraq. But as Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government correctly points out, “When have we ever had stability or security that we should be worried about losing it?”

In light of the significant contributions the Kurds have made to the fight against ISIS, it is my humble opinion that they have earned independence. However, a yes-vote on the referendum will not necessarily lead to that outcome. Some pundits think the intent is merely to strengthen the Kurds’ hand in their negotiations with Baghdad.

Syria de-escalation: Turkey, Russia, and Iran have agreed to establish a “de-escalation zone” in Idlib province, Syria, the last major enclave of non-ISIS opposition to the Assad regime. The agreement is significant for two reasons, neither of them good: First, it helps Assad enormously. As I’ve written previously, these escalation zones free him to move his troops around the country and pick off his enemies one at a time. His opponents, pinned down in isolated enclaves, enjoy no such freedom. Second, it shows that the US, who isn’t a party to deal, has nearly completely lost influence in Syria.

Anti-woman Tunisian marriage law abolished: The government of Tunisia abolished a law which prohibits Muslim women from marrying non-Muslims. The new law raises the status of women in the country, putting them on a more equal footing with men as to who they can marry.

Tunisia is pretty much the only country in the region that has seen positive change come out of the Arab Spring.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092. It depicts the war for the Muslim soul between those who seek to enforce shari’a strictly, persecute Jews and Christians, and stamp out "un-Islamic" science, and those who wink at a few sins, tolerate their non-Muslim neighbors, and write science books instead of burning them.

Sunday, July 9, 2017

President Art-of-the-Deal gets suckered

Syria ceasefire primarily benefits Putin and Assad

In the wake of President Trump’s first meeting with Russian president Putin on Friday, the two nations announced, with great fanfare, that they, along with Jordan, had reached a ceasefire agreement for a portion of Syria. The ceasefire began today and, and as of the time I’m writing this, it’s holding. It covers areas in the southern part of the country, in the provinces of Daraa, Quneytra, and as-Suwaida.

In a press conference following the meeting, Secretary of State Tillerson praised the agreement, saying, “I think this is our first indication of the US and Russia being able to work together in Syria.” He went on to say “our objectives are exactly the same. How we get there, we each have a view.”

In my humble opinion, the claim that the United States and Russia have the same objectives in Syria, and the only difference is how we get there, is ludicrous. The US seeks to overthrow the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, something Tillerson confirmed in his press conference. Russia is propping Assad up. That's literally the opposite objective. And the ceasefire is going to help them achieve it. Indeed, it's merely a continuation of a ceasefire that Syria announced unilaterally earlier in the week, amid rebel skepticism. I don't think anyone would accuse me of being unfair if I said that if the Syrian government announces a ceasefire unilaterally, you can bet it's in the Syrian government's interest to have a ceasefire. Only now the US is committed to it, which puts pressure on the US-backed rebels to abide by it as well.

I’m not alone in my opinion that, if the US objective is to unseat Assad, then the ceasefire is a sucker’s deal for the United States and its allies. In an interview with Fox News on Friday, former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton said, “I’m not at all sure that this ceasefire, assuming it holds, and that’s a big assumption, doesn’t mostly benefit the Assad regime. In other words it gives them some calm on this particular front to enable them to move forward on another front.”

Indeed, a glance at the map shows the logic of Ambassador Bolton's concern. With a ceasefire in the south, government troops can move north to concentrate on recapturing other rebel-held territories, say near Damascus, or in Idlib province. The rebels in the southern provinces, meanwhile, are stuck there. To assist other rebel factions in the north, they would have to cross government-held territory, which they can't do.

Ambassador Bolton expressed broader concerns as well. “This deal goes a long way toward politically acquiescing and legitimizing in that Russian presence, and I think that’s a mistake...What bothers me about it more than anything else, it sounds exactly like the Obama administration’s position.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel seems dubious also. This morning he told his cabinet, “Israel would welcome a true ceasefire in Syria.” I admit I'm reading between the lines, but it sounds like he doesn't consider this ceasefire to be "true."

President Trump got elected by bragging about his skill at negotiation. If his deal with Russia on the Syria ceasefire is any indication, he may have overstated his abilities.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embrace science and tolerance, and those who would rather throw in their lot with mysticism and persecution.

Photo credit: Ha’aretz
Map credit: SyrianCivilWarMap.com

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Mideast Week in Review

Trump/Erdogan Meeting
US Airstrikes in Syria
Iran Presidential Election
Trump Saudi Visit

Egypt/Sudan Squabble
by Michael Isenberg

Trump/Erdogan Meeting: President Trump met with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in the White House on Tuesday. Trump was criticized for the warm welcome he gave Erdogan, despite the Turkish premier’s increasingly authoritarian rule. A letter from a bipartisan group of seventeen senators, including Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ), stated “Erdogan and his allies have mounted an assault on the rule of law, particularly using sweeping state of emergency authorities to stifle fundamental rights including free speech, undermine the independence of the judiciary, and quash any opposition to their undemocratic actions.” They urged the president "to make support for Turkish democracy a priority, both in your meetings with Erdogan this week and in U.S. policy toward Turkey thereafter." But at least as far as his public remarks were concerned, Mr. Trump declined to do so. He said instead that his talks with Mr. Erdogan would focus on trade and the fight against terrorism.

The visit was marred by violence at the Turkish Embassy between anti-Erdogan protesters and Mr. Erdogan’s security detail. At least one protester was “seriously injured,” prompting Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) to tell MSNBC’s Morning Joe, “We should throw their ambassador the hell out of the United States of America.”

Lawmakers demand swift action for Turkish Embassy violence (Washington Post)

Syria: US air forces attacked Syrian government troops on Thursday to prevent them from moving toward rebels allied with the US, along with some US advisers, near the Jordanian border. Although the strike is “believed to be the first targeting Syrian personnel,” a Pentagon official assured the Associated Press, “There is no change in policy.”

Separately, in Geneva, peace talks resumed. President Assad, who continued to advance militarily with the evacuation of rebel forces from the Qaboun district of Damascus, called the talks “irrelevant.”

Syria war: Peace talks restart in Geneva (BBC)

Syria war: Rebels evacuated from Damascus stronghold (BBC)

Iran Elections: About 70% of voters turned out to cast their ballots for president on Friday. In what he called a rejection of “extremism and violence,” incumbent Hasan Rouhani easily beat hardliner Ibrahim Raisi, 57% to 39%, with other candidates splitting the remainder. Rouhani’s campaign was marked by extensive use of social media, including an Instagram photo of the candidate with rather unislamically dressed women that appealed to the young and the hip, and trolling of Raisi by Rouhani supporters. Rouhani was considered the moderate in the race. Granted, "moderate" is a relative term. The election was a referendum on his efforts to expand diplomatic and economic ties with the West, which Raisi opposed.

Iran's Instagram election sees rivals battle on social media (BBC)

After the presidential elections, will Iran still welcome trade with the West? (BBC)

Trump visit to Saudi Arabia: Mr. Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, the first stop on his first foreign tour as president. Trump has already signed $350B worth of deals with Saudi Arabia, including a $110B arms deal, and is expected to deliver a speech on “hopes for a peaceful vision of Islam.” It remains to be seen how that will be received by the Saudi people, but there’s no doubt Ivanka is a hit. #Bint_Trump (Trump's daughter) is trending big as legions of Saudi men fall in love with the First Daughter.

The Muslim Tweet: Daughter of Trump (Mike Isenberg)

Egypt/Sudan Tiff: In a March visit to Sudan, Sheikha Moza of Qatar referred to the country as “the mother of the world.” This led to a squabble between Sudan and Egypt, which claims that title for itself. Soon Angelina Jolie and the British ambassador became involved. An Egyptian talk show host ridiculed Sudan’s pyramids, claiming they look like cheese triangles.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern, exposing Islamists and supporting reformers. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embraced science and tolerance, and those who threw in their lot with mysticism and persecution instead.

Photo credits: CNN, Instagram