Rouhani Wags the Dog

Behind the Trump/Rouhani war of words.
by Michael Isenberg.

"NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE."

So declared President Trump last night in what the interwebz has dubbed "The Mother of all Tweets." His words, rendered in all caps, were in response to a speech that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered earlier in the day to a gathering of Iranian diplomats. Rouhani’s remark that “Americans must [understand] that peace with Iran [is] the mother of all peace, war with Iran the mother of all wars” was the most widely reported excerpt from the speech, but it was just the tip of the iceberg. More extensive quotes, appearing on President Rouhani’s website (sadly, there isn’t a full transcript) reveal a bellicose and paranoid rant against the United States, President Trump, and the State of Israel. In addition to outlining five “conspiracies” by the United States against the Iranian people, President Rouhani said,

"The current US administration is fighting the world and its own national interests at the same time." "What [the] US always does is conspiracy against Iran and the great Iranian nation." "Iran acted wisely against Trump's inexperience." "They have been saying that Israel is the model of democracy in the region; today, it was proved that it is the centre of apartheid." "Iran's strategic depth stretches in east to the subcontinent, in the west to the Mediterranean, in the south to the Red Sea, and in the north to the Caucasus." "Anybody who knows a little politics doesn't say he will stop Iran's oil export. We have a lot of straits; Hormuz is just one of them." "Today, speaking with [the] US has no meaning except surrender and end of people's achievements. Mr. Trump! We are the people of dignity and guarantor of security of the waterway of the region throughout the history. Don't play with the lion's tail; you will regret it."

The last three quotes are particularly troubling because they express Iran’s ambitions to be the dominant power in the region and they repeat a threat that President Rouhani made earlier this month to close the Straits of Hormuz to international shipping if the Trump administration proceeds with its plans to re-impose nuclear sanctions on Iran. That threat was seconded by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei at the gathering of diplomats this weekend.

Rouhani’s speech was not delivered in a vacuum. The Iranian regime faces serious domestic problems, specifically a weakening economy and popular protest against the regime’s hardline enforcement of Islamic law, especially its restrictions on women’s dress and behavior.

The economy was a major issue in the May 2017 Iranian presidential election. Iran had suffered many years of economic stagnation—the BBC reported “Iran’s economy had been close to collapse”—thanks to western sanctions. But with the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, sanctions were lifted, and by the time of the election the economy was enjoying 7% growth. However, despite an expanding GDP, double digit unemployment lingered. President Rouhani’s election opponent, Ibrahim Raisi, hammered the incumbent for relying too heavily on foreign investment, especially western investment.

The Iranian people decided they were satisfied with President Rouhani—they handed him a 57%-39% victory over Raisi—but their satisfaction did not last long. Protests over high prices in Mashhad during the New Year’s weekend received international attention and spread to several other cities before they were violently stamped out by authorities. Since then the economic situation has deteriorated considerably. In anticipation of President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and the re-imposition of US sanctions, which he formally announced May 8, the Iranian rial has collapsed against the dollar. Prices of foreign goods have skyrocketed. In Teheran last month, shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar closed their doors in protest, and thousands of demonstrators attempted to march to Parliament until they were dispersed by riot police.

But not all protests in Iran are economic. When Vida Movahedi removed her hijab at a demonstration on Revolution Street in Teheran in December, she inspired women all over Iran to defy the country’s strict dress code. But she is merely the most visible symbol that Iranian women are fed up with theocracy. In recent months, they have proven themselves ingenious at devising a thousand small acts of defiance. Whether by going out hijab-less, dancing in public (sometimes with men, sometimes by themselves), or disguising themselves as men to sneak into soccer games, they have, little by little, cracked the façade of fundamentalism.

There is no doubt that the economic and social protests were on President Rouhani’s mind when he addressed the gathering of diplomats yesterday. He alluded to the government’s responsibility “to pave the way for private sector's activity in the country.” And he attempted to discredit the protests by blaming them on the United States. “You can't incite Iranian people against Iran's security and interests.” I find it likely that this is the real motive for Rouhani’s attacks—to distract the Iranian people from domestic problems by drawing their attention to international ones. To wag the dog.

If that is the case, then President Trump—who has domestic problems of his own—played into President Rouhani’s hands by responding the way he did. Still, I’m not sure he had a lot of choice. The threats to the Straits of Hormuz need to be taken seriously and couldn’t go unanswered. It will be interesting to see, in the weeks ahead, whether the hard line he has taken will cause Iran, like most bullies, to back down. As a number of commentators have pointed out, a similar tack brought North Korea to the negotiating table—albeit how those negotiations will play out is anybody’s guess at this point. When it comes to Twitter diplomacy, we’re all still learning.

Michael Isenberg drinks bourbon and writes novels. His latest book, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092, and tells the story of the conflict between science and shari’ah in medieval Islam. It is available on Amazon.com Photo Credits: NPR, Twitter

President Art-of-the-Deal gets suckered

Syria ceasefire primarily benefits Putin and Assad

In the wake of President Trump’s first meeting with Russian president Putin on Friday, the two nations announced, with great fanfare, that they, along with Jordan, had reached a ceasefire agreement for a portion of Syria. The ceasefire began today and, and as of the time I’m writing this, it’s holding. It covers areas in the southern part of the country, in the provinces of Daraa, Quneytra, and as-Suwaida.

In a press conference following the meeting, Secretary of State Tillerson praised the agreement, saying, “I think this is our first indication of the US and Russia being able to work together in Syria.” He went on to say “our objectives are exactly the same. How we get there, we each have a view.”

In my humble opinion, the claim that the United States and Russia have the same objectives in Syria, and the only difference is how we get there, is ludicrous. The US seeks to overthrow the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, something Tillerson confirmed in his press conference. Russia is propping Assad up. That's literally the opposite objective. And the ceasefire is going to help them achieve it. Indeed, it's merely a continuation of a ceasefire that Syria announced unilaterally earlier in the week, amid rebel skepticism. I don't think anyone would accuse me of being unfair if I said that if the Syrian government announces a ceasefire unilaterally, you can bet it's in the Syrian government's interest to have a ceasefire. Only now the US is committed to it, which puts pressure on the US-backed rebels to abide by it as well.

I’m not alone in my opinion that, if the US objective is to unseat Assad, then the ceasefire is a sucker’s deal for the United States and its allies. In an interview with Fox News on Friday, former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton said, “I’m not at all sure that this ceasefire, assuming it holds, and that’s a big assumption, doesn’t mostly benefit the Assad regime. In other words it gives them some calm on this particular front to enable them to move forward on another front.”

Indeed, a glance at the map shows the logic of Ambassador Bolton's concern. With a ceasefire in the south, government troops can move north to concentrate on recapturing other rebel-held territories, say near Damascus, or in Idlib province. The rebels in the southern provinces, meanwhile, are stuck there. To assist other rebel factions in the north, they would have to cross government-held territory, which they can't do.

Ambassador Bolton expressed broader concerns as well. “This deal goes a long way toward politically acquiescing and legitimizing in that Russian presence, and I think that’s a mistake...What bothers me about it more than anything else, it sounds exactly like the Obama administration’s position.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel seems dubious also. This morning he told his cabinet, “Israel would welcome a true ceasefire in Syria.” I admit I'm reading between the lines, but it sounds like he doesn't consider this ceasefire to be "true."

President Trump got elected by bragging about his skill at negotiation. If his deal with Russia on the Syria ceasefire is any indication, he may have overstated his abilities.

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embrace science and tolerance, and those who would rather throw in their lot with mysticism and persecution.

Photo credit: Ha’aretz
Map credit: SyrianCivilWarMap.com

Mideast Week in Review

Trump in Saudi, Israel

Turkey State of Emergency

Iran Election Aftermath

Liberation of Mosul

Manchester Bombing

Egypt Bus Attack

by Michael Isenberg

Trump in Saudi, Israel: Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia and Israel this week, as the first two stops on his first foreign tour as President of the United States.

On Sunday, Mr. Trump addressed the Arab Islamic American Summit. Those of you who follow me on social media know that I’m not a fan of the president, but I’m willing to give credit where credit is due. His Riyadh speech hit the bullseye. He called out terrorists for what they are, “barbaric criminals who seek to obliterate human life.” What a welcome change from the cringing, apologetic tone of Mr. Obama! I found it significant that he mentioned ideology six times. IMHO, he showed real insight into the War on Terror: it's a War of Ideas. Terrorists become terrorists because they accept an ideology that tells them to become terrorists.

Following his speech, he joined King Salman of Saudi Arabia and President as-Sisi of Egypt at the opening of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology. As far as I can tell, the Center, which is located in Riyadh, is a boiler room for countering jihadism on social media. While combating extremist ideology is pretty much my raison d'etre these days, there’s something creepily Orwellian about governments, some of which are already highly repressive, countering any form of speech. In any case, the three heads of state let themselves be photographed holding on to a glowing orb. The unfortunate visual, combined with the Center's sinister mission, put many in mind of a certain organization of supervillains, and #HailHydra trended for a day. But by Monday Mr. Trump was in Israel and the Interwebs had a new thing to speculate about: what did he write in the note that he left at the Western Wall?

Read more—

Trump Gets One Right

Make Hydra Great Again

So, just what did Trump's note in the Western Wall say? (BBC)

 

Turkey State of Emergency: The New York Times reported that in Turkey on Sunday, President Recep Erdogan stated that the state of emergency put into place after last year’s coup attempt would stay in place until “welfare and peace” returned to the nation of 80 million. According to the Times report, under the emergency measures, thousands have been jailed, and websites blocked, with no parliamentary oversight.

Read more—

Erdogan Says He Will Extend His Sweeping Rule Over Turkey (NYT)

The Real Problem with Erdogan

 

Iran Election Aftermath:Iran President Hasan Rouhani is getting back to work following his overwhelming victory in the May 19 election. The BBC reports that he faces three major challenges: 1) unemployment, 2) opposition to reform from Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei, and 3) relations with the United States.

The third challenge was underscored by Mr. Trump during the course of his travels. In his Riyadh speech he said, “Until the Iranian regime is willing to be a partner for peace, all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve.” In Israel, he vowed, “Iran will never have nuclear weapons, that I can tell you.” But Mr. Rouhani scoffed at the words of his American counterpart, which he called, “Just a show.”

Read more—

Iran's President Rouhani has quite the to-do list (BBC)

Trump tells Israel Iran will never have nuclear weapons (BBC)

Rouhani dismisses Trump warning over Iran 'threat' (BBC)

 

Liberation of Mosul: The slow but steady advance of the Iraqi army and its allies into the city of Mosul continues. While east Mosul is now under government control, ISIS remains entrenched in the western sector of the city.

Liberation has not been without its cost in human life. The United States confirmed on Friday that 105 civilians died in a US air strike in March. The US had targeted two ISIS snipers with precision-guided munitions, tragically unaware that the building was used to store explosives and was also a place of refuge for residents who had been driven from their homes.

With liberation, come the stories: the true horrors of life under ISIS. According to the BBC, these include the murder of a seven year old girl. She died screaming in front of her mother, who was also screaming, as female members of the religious police bit and pinched her to death for the crime of being alone with a male shop owner when she went to buy candy.

Read more—

US air strike on IS killed 105 civilians in Iraq's Mosul (BBC)

Lipstick and dresses return to Mosul’s streets (BBC)

 

Manchester Bombing:Tragedy struck Manchester, England Monday night when a suicide bomber detonated an explosion at an Ariane Grande concert. Twenty-two victims, as young as eight years old, died in the calamity, their hopes and dreams snuffed out in an instant.

As the week progressed, a portrait, albeit a fuzzy one, emerged of the monster responsible. Twenty-two-year old Salman Abedi was born in England, but his ties to the Mideast are extensive. His parents are Libyan refugees. The Telegraph reports that his father belongs to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, "a well-known militant Islamist group in Libya, which is proscribed in Britain." The younger Abedi is thought to have traveled recently in Syria and Libya. There is some question as to when and how he became radicalized. According to some reports, he drank alcohol until as late as last year, but his travels changed him. His sister said, “I think he saw children—Muslim children—dying everywhere, and wanted revenge.” I am skeptical. IMHO, jihadism is motivated primarily by its own ideology; anything the West has done is secondary. There is some evidence this was the case with Abedi. Contradicting accounts of a recent conversion to jihadism, The Telegraph writes there were at least five reports to authorities of incidents, going back five years, of Abedi showing sympathy to terrorists. These included telling friends that "being a suicide bomber was okay," and getting banned from the local mosque after a run-in with an imam who had given a sermon condemning terrorism.

So Abedi was on the authorities' radar long before he launched his hideous attack. It occurred to me that he had that in common with Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the older of the Boston Marathon bombers, and Omar Mateen, the Pulse nightclub shooter. In all three cases, the authorities failed to prevent them from carrying out their evil intentions. There hasn’t been much discussion about why counter-terrorist agencies have been unable to do more in these cases. Possibly they are overwhelmed with such reports, and are unable to distinguish the real threats. Possibly red tape limits their ability to act. Clearly it’s something that the US and its allies need to take a closer look at.

Read more—

Remembering the Manchester Victims

Everything we know about Manchester suicide bomber Salman Abedi (Telegraph)

Security services missed five opportunities to stop the Manchester bomber (Telegraph)

Manchester attack: The Libya-jihad connection (BBC)

 

Egypt Bus Attack: Alas, Manchester was not the only significant terrorist attack this week. Near Cairo on Friday, armed militants stopped and boarded a bus full of Coptic Christians on their way to a monastery in the desert. The militants, who wore masks, opened fire, murdering at least 29. ISIS has claimed responsibility.

Read more—

Egypt: At least 28 dead as gunmen fire on bus carrying Coptic Christians (CNN)

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern, exposing Islamists and supporting reformers. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embraced science and tolerance, and those who threw in their lot with mysticism and persecution instead.

Photo credit: The Telegraph

Mideast Week in Review

Trump/Erdogan Meeting

US Airstrikes in Syria

Iran Presidential Election

Trump Saudi Visit

Egypt/Sudan Squabble

by Michael Isenberg

Trump/Erdogan Meeting: President Trump met with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in the White House on Tuesday. Trump was criticized for the warm welcome he gave Erdogan, despite the Turkish premier’s increasingly authoritarian rule. A letter from a bipartisan group of seventeen senators, including Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ), stated “Erdogan and his allies have mounted an assault on the rule of law, particularly using sweeping state of emergency authorities to stifle fundamental rights including free speech, undermine the independence of the judiciary, and quash any opposition to their undemocratic actions.” They urged the president "to make support for Turkish democracy a priority, both in your meetings with Erdogan this week and in U.S. policy toward Turkey thereafter." But at least as far as his public remarks were concerned, Mr. Trump declined to do so. He said instead that his talks with Mr. Erdogan would focus on trade and the fight against terrorism.

The visit was marred by violence at the Turkish Embassy between anti-Erdogan protesters and Mr. Erdogan’s security detail. At least one protester was “seriously injured,” prompting Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) to tell MSNBC’s Morning Joe, “We should throw their ambassador the hell out of the United States of America.”

Read more—

Trump welcomes Erdogan amid US-Turkey strains (CNN)

Lawmakers demand swift action for Turkish Embassy violence (Washington Post)

 

Syria: US air forces attacked Syrian government troops on Thursday to prevent them from moving toward rebels allied with the US, along with some US advisers, near the Jordanian border. Although the strike is “believed to be the first targeting Syrian personnel,” a Pentagon official assured the Associated Press, “There is no change in policy.”

Separately, in Geneva, peace talks resumed. President Assad, who continued to advance militarily with the evacuation of rebel forces from the Qaboun district of Damascus, called the talks “irrelevant.”

Read more—

US air strikes pound pro-Assad forces in Syria (Fox)

Syria war: Peace talks restart in Geneva (BBC)

Syria war: Rebels evacuated from Damascus stronghold (BBC)

 

Iran Elections: About 70% of voters turned out to cast their ballots for president on Friday. In what he called a rejection of “extremism and violence,” incumbent Hasan Rouhani easily beat hardliner Ibrahim Raisi, 57% to 39%, with other candidates splitting the remainder. Rouhani’s campaign was marked by extensive use of social media, including an Instagram photo of the candidate with rather unislamically dressed women that appealed to the young and the hip, and trolling of Raisi by Rouhani supporters. Rouhani was considered the moderate in the race. Granted, "moderate" is a relative term. The election was a referendum on his efforts to expand diplomatic and economic ties with the West, which Raisi opposed.

Read more—

Iran election: Hassan Rouhani says voters rejected extremism (BBC)

Iran's Instagram election sees rivals battle on social media (BBC)

After the presidential elections, will Iran still welcome trade with the West? (BBC)

 

Trump visit to Saudi Arabia: Mr. Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, the first stop on his first foreign tour as president. Trump has already signed $350B worth of deals with Saudi Arabia, including a $110B arms deal, and is expected to deliver a speech on “hopes for a peaceful vision of Islam.” It remains to be seen how that will be received by the Saudi people, but there’s no doubt Ivanka is a hit. #Bint_Trump (Trump's daughter) is trending big as legions of Saudi men fall in love with the First Daughter.

Read more—

Trump in Saudi Arabia: First foreign trip starts as home troubles mount (BBC)

The Muslim Tweet: Daughter of Trump (Mike Isenberg)

 

Egypt/Sudan Tiff: In a March visit to Sudan, Sheikha Moza of Qatar referred to the country as “the mother of the world.” This led to a squabble between Sudan and Egypt, which claims that title for itself. Soon Angelina Jolie and the British ambassador became involved. An Egyptian talk show host ridiculed Sudan’s pyramids, claiming they look like cheese triangles.

Read more—

The Qatari princess, Angelina Jolie and the battle of the pyramids (BBC)

 

Michael Isenberg writes about the Muslim world, medieval and modern, exposing Islamists and supporting reformers. His forthcoming novel, The Thread of Reason, is a murder mystery that takes place in Baghdad in the year 1092 and depicts the battle for the Muslim soul between those who embraced science and tolerance, and those who threw in their lot with mysticism and persecution instead.

Photo credits: CNN, Instagram